The calendar turning to November not only signals the second half of the NFL schedule, but closes the door on “underdog” season for football bettors.
Over the past seven years, the opening eight weeks of action have proved profitable for those teams getting the points. NFL underdogs covered at a collective 54.5% between Week 1 and Week 8 from 2015 to 2021, with that success surging to 56.7% the previous three years.
The 2022 campaign has been no different, with point spread pups producing a 67-52-3 ATS count in the opening half of the slate (56.1%). But here comes November “kickin’ the door and wavin’ the four-four” in Week 9, so underdog bettors better bundle up for the cold, hard months ahead.
From 2015 to 2021, underdog success slipped to 50.4% in the second half of the schedule. That includes a 74-72-2 ATS finish last year (50.7%) after a 55.8% winning clip in the opening eight weeks.
At this time last season, I was sitting all fat and happy at 16-8 ATS with underdog bets and closed the final 10 weeks of the regular season by going just 12-18 ATS. Brrrrrr.
If this swing in plus-point spread success stays true in 2022, I certainly have my work cut out for me after opening the first half of the schedule just 10-14 ATS with my weekly NFL picks and predictions. But Week 9 odds present plenty of options, from big home dogs to short road dogs and every pup in between.
Here are my three NFL underdog picks for Week 9:
